Holiday Retail 2026: 5 Trends and How Smarter Data Helps Retailers Win

Pour yourself some eggnog, retail marketers. The 2026 holiday season is shaping up to be a big one. The National Retail Federation forecasts November and December sales will grow 4.2%, Forrester is feeling even jollier at 5.1%, and holiday e-commerce is expected to jump 11.6%.

This great news comes with a catch: much of the growth comes from higher prices, not stronger demand. Shoppers are spending, but they are also comparing, hesitating, and abandoning carts like it is an Olympic event. The winners will not be the retailers who shout the loudest or spam our inboxes with “Blockbuster Deals.” They will be the ones who know their target customers best and tailor their messaging to those customers.

Here are five trends shaping the holiday season.

1. One Season, Two Very Different Wish Lists

There is no such thing as “the holiday shopper” this year. Higher-income households are still filling carts with confidence, while lower-income households are doing the math on gas, groceries, and gifts, and the math is not festive. One broad message is basically a gift card nobody asked for.

The best retailers sort households into who is ready to buy high-value items, who is hunting for value, and which categories each one cares about. They also forecast demand by region, so promotions, inventory, and staffing land where shoppers actually are. Either way, you are only as sharp as the audiences behind the plan.

2. Online Sales Will Climb, but No Sale Happens in a Single Channel

Forrester expects holiday e-commerce to grow 11.6%, delivering nearly 60% of incremental holiday sales even though online is just over a quarter of the total. But the modern shopper is a channel hopper. They spot a gift on their phone at lunch, compare prices on a laptop that evening, and buy it in a store on Saturday. To your analytics, that can look like three strangers. To your bottom line, it is one very important person.

Smart retailers personalize the experience in real time, whatever device the shopper is holding, and keep inventory and fulfillment in sync so “buy online, pick up in store” does not become “buy online, pick a fight in store.” The catch is that it only works if you know it is the same person on every screen.

3. AI Search Is Here, and It Is Changing How Customers Find You

The holiday shopping journey now often starts with a simple text prompt in ChatGPT. Forrester reports that consumers ask AI chatbots about unfamiliar or research-heavy purchases, head to brand sites for known or pricey items, and hit marketplaces for the everyday stuff. Your carefully designed homepage may not get a visit until the very end, if at all. The brands that win show up wherever the question gets asked.

That starts with clean, consistent product data, so AI shopping assistants recommend your products instead of shrugging. It also means knowing which channels each audience uses to find products, so your budget goes where those shoppers are actually looking.

4. “Big Savings!” Is Not a Personality

Shoppers are spending with one eyebrow raised. Fall deal events kicked off holiday shopping before most people finished their Halloween candy, and every inbox is now a wall of identical doorbusters. The offers that break through feel written for someone, whether that someone wants a premium gift bundle or just a really good deal on socks.

The strongest offers match each audience instead of blasting the same discount at everyone, and creative keeps pace as the season shifts from early bird deals to full panic gifting.

5. Every Holiday Dollar Has to Show Its Receipts

In an inflation-boosted season, sales can rise while items sold barely move, which makes top-line revenue a pretty unreliable narrator. Leadership will want to know which campaigns truly drove results, and the window to move budget closes fast once December gets going.

Mid-season, the goal is a faster, more honest read on what is driving conversions, so dollars follow results instead of habits.

Key Takeaways

Holiday spending is projected to hit record highs, but today’s shopper will not spend purely out of brand loyalty. Budgets are stretched, shoppers move across channels, and every ad dollar needs proof that it worked. That means this is the year precision beats volume.

AI is a powerful tool, but it works best with deep data, multichannel reach, and measurement that tells the truth. Claritas supports the full loop, from identity and segmentation through activation and outcome-based measurement.